Stats for May 2010 and Short Term Predictions

This month brought about what we all expected.   Lower sales volume (due to end of the tax credits) and steady prices.  Although median prices are down a bit, average prices were up with upward trends being shown for both condos and homes.  And the number of sales is down it is still up 72% over May of 2009 showing a turnaround in the market.

The easiest way to look at short term predictions is to see the what is happening with pending sales.    Pending sales means that a property is under contract so there is a good chance that it will sell.  Averages tell us that average Sale/List price is 94-95%.  For REO’s  and Short Sales that tends to be higher.  I thought that a wildcard in pending analysis would be  Short Sales.  A few months ago our Board of REALTORS® decided that a Short Sale must be marked as Pending when it is submitted to the bank for approval.   This can be an infinitely long process.  Often the banks just sit on a contract package and there is no positive or negative response.   The good news is that many of the banks have improved their processes.

In looking at pending sales,  I found that roughly 45% of them are Short Sales.   However in looking at the short sales, I saw little indication that they would significantly impact the trends.  Of those sold in the last year, the Sale/List ratio was higher than the normal at almost 96%!  This basically indicates that REALTORS®  do an exceptional job at pricing short sales to sell.  Many don’t sell but I didn’t see any trends that were much different than a normal sale.

Using the  Full Trend Reports, I look at the pending ratio of  List Price to current trend.  For example, for All Maui Condos, the pending average price is $417,778 compared to Moving Trend at $841,267 resulting in a 50% ratio.   This tells me that prices for condos are going fall significantly.  But we do know that the our averages on condo’s have been high due to closings at Honua Kai, so if we balance it with the median prices with a 69% ratio.   Still, there is no doubt that condo prices will continue to decline for the next few months even though the trends show significant increases over the last few months.   Single Family Home prices are very stable with both Average and Median Pending ratio  being at 104%.   This is exactly where we would expect it to be if seeing not significant price changes.   Remember that real estate is very local so check each area before making decisions based on data.

Check out the detailed reports for each area.

• View the Snapshot Report All areas of Maui captured on a single page,
• View the Full Trend Report – 2 years of trend data by area.

The foreclosure picture hasn’t changed much.  We continue to see more banks processing short sales.  A few fewer auctions in the Maui News…may be someday we’ll start seeing some downward trends!

* Foreclosure counts are based on those advertised in the Maui News. This is not a complete list but reflects trends.

View available Maui Bank-Owned Properties

View available Maui Short Sale Properties

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Maui Statistics This data is published by the Realtors® Association of Maui, Inc. It contains monthly updates on sales by area for the County of Maui.