Is The Market Wobbly or Stable?

Maui residential sales took a huge dive from 96 units sold in December to just 46 in January.  It sure sounds and looks alarming.  A different picture develops when you compare it to last year where December sales were 65 and January was just 30.   WOW!  Almost identical drops except that we are about 50% better off this year!  We do have seasonal lows and for our residential properties, January and February are slow since most people just don’t buy houses during the holidays.

Prices are generally pretty stable.  One thing to note  is that the pending prices for condos are 70-75% of current sold prices.   This tells me that condo prices are probably going to come down significantly in the next few months.   This could be artificially inflated by short sales that may never go through but some drops are pretty evident.

Interesting Statistic of the Month: Someone asked me what percentage of properties are purchased with cash.  Last month that was 41%.  Just looking at bank-controlled properties the answer was 44%.   Does cash get you a better discount off the list price? The statistical answer is yes but not as much as many people think.    Looking at the cash purchases the  maximum List to Sell ratio was 111% and lowest was 38% (land) with a median of 90%. Take a median price of $469,000 and that would be a sales price of $422,100.   Compare that to all purchases (including cash) and the maximum List to Sell ratio was 120% , the lowest was 38% and the  median of  93.5%.  Take the same median list price of $469,00 and you have a sales price of  $438, 515.  So cash buyers would save about $16,515 or 3.5%.

Check out the detailed reports for each area.

• View the Snapshot Report All areas of Maui captured on a single page!
• View the Full Trend Report – 2 years of trend data by area.

Foreclosures  sales were down significantly this month from the peak in December.  This may be due to many people wanting to close by year end to take advantage of first-time homebuyers credit (before it was extended).  It may also be attributed to seasonal changes and the auction trends.  Notice that the foreclosure auctions peaked in September followed by REO listings peak in Oct/November. Then there were quick closes before year end.  We should see another sales peak hit in April/June as the recent newspapers have been flooded with foreclosure auctions.

* Foreclosure counts are based on those advertised in the Maui News. This is not a complete list but reflects trends.

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Maui Statistics This data is published by the Realtors® Association of Maui, Inc. It contains monthly updates on sales by area for the County of Maui.